Saturday 29 January 2011

On edge

Demonstrators in Sanaa, Yemen, 27 January 2010Tens of thousands of people have demonstrated in the capital, Sanaa
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With global news networks broadcasting wall-to-wall coverage of popular uprisings in Arab capitals, there is renewed focus on discontent in Yemen's mountain capital, Sanaa.

Yemen suffers from high population growth, unemployment running at 40%, rising food prices and acute levels of malnutrition.

Yemeni protesters are calling for a more responsive, inclusive government and improved economic conditions but - with oil production falling - the current economic trend is heading downwards.

Public demonstrations across the region are raising the stakes for change in Yemen.

President Ali Abdullah Saleh came to power in 1978, first as president of North Yemen and then, after unification with South Yemen in 1990, as leader of the newly united republic.

President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen, 10 January 2011Veteran leader Ali Abdullah Saleh, 64, has an extensive patronage network

His ruling party, the General People's Congress, holds a large majority in parliament, representing a "big tent" coalition.

In addition, the president maintains an extensive informal patronage network of tribal leaders, businessmen and clerics.

At the beginning of January, President Saleh proposed a constitutional amendment that would allow him to stand for re-election in the next presidential ballot in two years' time.

However, events in Cairo and Tunisia make that move temporarily untenable and earlier this week, President Saleh promised that he would stand aside in 2013.

(He made a similar promise to stand down before the 2006 presidential election, but eventually reversed this position.)

After 30 years in power, he faces widespread complaints of corruption and the concentration of power within his tribal sub-group, the Sanhan clan.

Large areas of the country are already in open revolt against his regime, with a breakaway movement in the south, attacks on the security services by Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and a de-facto semi-autonomous area under the control of northern rebels.

For years, Western governments have been pressuring President Saleh to initiate political and economic reforms to put the country on a more sustainable footing, but progress has been slow.

Economic and social problemsPoorest country in the Middle East with 40% of Yemenis living on less than $2 (£1.25) a dayMore than two-thirds of the population are under 24More than a third are jobless; illiteracy stands at over 50%Dwindling oil reserves and falling oil revenues; little inward investmentAcute water shortageWeak central government

President Saleh appeared on television a few days ago, apologising for his mistakes - but his emergency announcement of price controls and salary hikes will only increase the underlying macro-economic p

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